NBA Picks

Orlando is now missing both of its top two scorers, as Banchero and Wagner account for 50% of the team’s point production. The injury woes aren’t nearly as bad for the Miami Heat, but the club could be without Jimmy Butler (conditioning/personal) and Terry Rozier (knee) tonight, who represent two of the team’s top-four scorers. Not only are both teams likely missing some elite talent, but the Magic and Heat also own two of the NBA’s top defenses. Orlando is giving up a stingy 103.9 points per game, while Miami is surrendering just 109.4 per game. 

When Mark Williams is healthy, he's made a big impact on the glass. He was averaging 9.7 rpg in 26.7 mpg as a sophomore last season before suffering a season-ending back injury. He missed the first 20 games with a foot injury this year and made his season debut earlier this month. He came off the bench and saw limited minutes in his next three contests but has started the last four games with his playing time steadily increasing. He had nine rebounds in 19 minutes on Monday and has now pulled down 8+ boards in three of his last four games. The Wizards are 28th in the NBA in rebounding rate and are fourth in pace. Those extra possessions have resulted in them giving up a league-high 57.6 rebounds per game.

Jaquez is averaging just 8.7 ppg in 21.4 mpg this season. The O/U for his points is set at 11.5 today despite Jaquez going below that number in 16 of his last 20 games. The Heat also have a tough matchup on the road against the Magic, who play at the sixth-slowest pace in the NBA and are third in defensive rating which has led to them allowing a league-low 101.1 ppg at home. Jimmy Butler is doubtful tonight but even if he's sidelined that doesn't necessarily mean a bigger offensive role for Jaquez. In seven games without Butler this season, Jaquez has averaged 9.4 ppg while logging more than 25 minutes in just one of those contests.

It’s been a rough campaign for Tyrese Haliburton, who was an All-Star in 2023-24. His numbers have dipped this season, averaging 17.8 points, 8.8 assists, and 3.5 rebounds on 35% shooting from 3-point range. He's been more efficient of late but still isn't taking the requisite volume required for scoring consistently high. The Thunder have the best defense in the league. Haliburton won't right the ship tonight.

Barrett leads the Raptors with 23.5 ppg and even when Scottie Barnes returned to the lineup in late November, Barrett has remained the No. 1 scoring option. Over the last month, Barret has scored 23+ points in six of nine games and is averaging 24.9 ppg over that span. While the Grizzlies are a good defensive team they play at the fastest pace in the league which has led to them ranking 15th in ppg allowed (113.0). Memphis is also just 20th in the league in fastbreak ppg allowed (15.8 ppg) while ranking 18th at defending the rim per ShotQualityBets. Barrett is third in the league in transition ppg (6.7) and is in the top 20th percentile at attacking the rim frequency.

Deni Avdija is coming off a 19-point performance against the Mavs and he has stepped up over the last month. He has now scored at least 14 points in 11 of his last 13 contests and is averaging 15.6 ppg on 50/44/78 shooting splits over that span. Today, Avdija and the Blazers host the Utah Jazz who are last in the league in defensive rating and 28th in scoring defense (119.5 ppg allowed). The Jazz have been even worse defensively on the road where they surrender 121.2 ppg on 48.4% shooting. With Jerami Grant mired in a shooting slump (eight points on 3-19 shooting over the last two games), expect Portland to keep Avdija involved in the offense.